Chapter 39 Predictions (Spoilers abound!)

[MrRigger2]

Okay, here's your one stop shop on predictions for the next chapter. As said in the title, spoilers abound, so if you haven't read the chapter, be careful.

My predictions include:

The Patroni showing up again in a fight against Dementors, possibly against a target not normally seen, perhaps Neville's home, or Luna's?

Snape being an asshat when it comes time for the Triwizard Tournament, judging just as unfairly as Karakoff.

Harry starting a correspondence with Bulstrode.

MrRigger

[Shadow Knight]

...
Snape being an asshat when it comes time for the Triwizard Tournament, judging just as unfairly as Karakoff.

Didn't think of that, but I can so see that happening.

My prediction is some hard ass IRA guys are going to get schooled by Harry and his chums with a great likelihood of Harry truly bust'n a cap in someone's ass.

[gman391]

I'm thinking that we have one more chapter before the IRA show up. Snape being an asshat at the tournament makes sense. Although I'm wondering if he'd be allowed on British soil. I also predict that Karakoff shows up somewhere and Wormtail makes an appearance.

[ashez2ashes]

Eh, I don't think I like IRA soldier stuff that's being hinted at. It smells faintly sharky.

[MrRigger2]

Eh, I don't know. The Authorlord has always done well in the past, either from his own experiences, or from research. And considering just how much time he puts into chapters, I'd assume that part of that time is research. I think he'll do it justice.

MrRigger

[gman391]

Have faith. Done well it could be awesome. And Matt has a history of doing it well.

[Nahmen]

Besides, it may not be so much about the attack itself, but the wizarding world's reaction to the attack. Such a terrible attack by terrorists on wizarding soil might prompt several government changes...in the name of national security, of course.

[Jaur]

Sounds reasonable...
And if we are playing the predictions game it is not necessary that the attack will come soon. Too me it sounds like a slow buildup. A bit like this at the end of every chapter and then, when the crew are celebrating surviving the big end of term shootout this comes and bites them in the ass. 5 or 6 chapters from now perhaps? Or possibly a good way to start off the next year. Sit there on your train at the start of term and see how you like the ruins you will arrive to.

[serbii]

I suspect:
Wizards: "Wait, the muggles can do WHAT!?"
The stature of secrecy may take a hit both from the muggle and magic side.

[Wittgen]

I to am having a hard time accepting the revelation that Voldemort's side is using muggle people to achieve its own ends. Putting aside the death eater's utter hatred for all things muggle, I just don't get how they would know enough to be able to contact the people they would need to contact. Voldemort may have been raised in an orphanage, but that was a long time ago and he completely cut himself off from the non-magical world when he graduated. I assume this will make sense in time, but at the moment, it is a real head scratcher. And not in a good way, really.

[Ironwolf]

The Authorlord didn't say it was Death Eaters, he said it was Peter, who was friends with several muggleborn and half-bloods, and even a few wizards that found a living in our world, before he sold out. He likely knows more about our world than any of his "new friends" and figured that the best way to remove a threat to his own hide by using a resource that no wizard would ever use because they either do not believe that the muggles are capable of killing them more efficiently then they them, or they are simply ignorent of the fact that muggles anything more than something that they can target for their own ammusement.

[Wraith422]

I dunno. The entire bit seems just a tad...off, to me. Granted, I have every faith in the Evil Authorlord's ability to pull this off spectacularly, but...there's so many little details that just don't seem quite right with this scenario.
Now, yes, it's Wormtail that's recruited these Irishmen into attacking Hogwarts, but he did so on "his master's" direction; his segment at the end of 'A War of Words' made it clear that Voldemort sent him to that pub with that story. I mean, come on, folks: yes, the Dark Lord is a extremely cruel and very obnoxious person, but (credit where credit is due) he is also very astute at judging people, and in that regard, I think we can trust his opinion that Peter is not a very bright or clever man. No way he came up with this idea or the backstory on his own. So, my thoughts are that if anyone came up with the idea of using Muggles for both attacking Hogwarts and the long-term consequences from that, it was the Dark Lord who did.
Which brings me to my big question/problem: why would Tom involve Muggles? Not to be canon-clingy, but he wanted nothing to do with them the first two times around (his 1970s reign and then the 90s in the original timeline) except to terrorise and torture them for his own entertainment. To be sure, as people have commented, bringing in armed, violent Muggles to attack the school is a brilliant stroke that has vast short-term and long-term implications to the Wizarding World...but Tom didn't do it before, genius move that it is.
Honestly, I think that Tom is too proud as a wizard to use what he views as 'lesser creatures.' I recall Dumbledore commenting that Tom never could comprehend the power or potential in the things that he considered beneath him, and among those things were Muggles. Now, I'm sure the Authorlord has a plan and reason for it, but until he unveils those reasons/plans, I'm left with the impression that this is awfully OOC for Tom, and considering that Lord Voldemort is at heart an incredibly predictable beast, it just isn't working for me so far. This level of genius manipulation--if, indeed, things play out like we all assume they will; wizardkind's "terrorist!" response, general downhillness from there--is more Emperor Palpatine's game. Sort of like sitting a six-year-old with a Grandmaster at a chess tournament, to try and put Lord Voldemort on Lord Sidious' level, in my mind. [Ohhhh, what a game that would be to watch]

And the final, most simple problem (in my terribly un-humble opinion) is that of the Dementors. We know from canon that they affect Muggles and wizards alike...but Muggles can't see them. How, then, are the Irish going to get past the castle's Dementor 'defences'? Hard enough to attack something that plays out your worst memories (and as some variety of IRA, these chaps are sure to have some horrific things for the Dementors to call up) but how do they fight something that paralyses them with their memories while they cannot see what is doing it to them? Sure, if it isn't in Tom's overarching plan for them to ever reach the castle doors, this won't be an issue--more like a benefit, even--but if they truly are meant to get into the castle...this is a problem, methinks.
...
...
And now, I am forcibly reminded of the MST3K mantra: "It's just a work of fiction. I should really just relax."
Two taken. I'll call me in the morning.

[Chuckg]

My own thought is that the IRA is intended to attack Hogwarts and fail. Lord knows that Hogwarts was founded in the first place to protect young witches from attempted witch-burnings... its the most heavily warded place in the United Kingdom, and its wards were originally erected to protect against violent wizard-hunting Muggles, no?

And if Voldemort really wanted to use Muggle explosives to attack Hogwarts with, well, I'm pretty sure he has at least one Death Eater who's muggleborn or halfblood enough to have actually learned something. Or, hell, have Bellatrix grab a handy explosives technician, Imperius him, and frog-march him in.

Instead, he uses Muggles. This attack is practically designed to fail, and so, I suspect that is the entire point. Because Muggles trying to blow up Hogwarts, without a wizard visible anywhere remotely near the picture, is just the sort of incident to provoke a hate/fear backlash against Muggles and "Muggle-lovers" among the wizarding community. The political advantages to Lord Voldemort here are obvious.

In other words, this is Voldemort's equivalent of Gleiwitz or the Reichstag Fire.

Edit: And yeah, this sort of manipulation is smarter than Voldemort's style... on the other hand, Lucius is fairly good at this sort of thing. Maybe he finally got Voldemort to actually read the suggestion box.

[Wraith422]

This attack is practically designed to fail, and so, I suspect that is the entire point. Because Muggles trying to blow up Hogwarts, without a wizard visible anywhere remotely near the picture, is just the sort of incident to provoke a hate/fear backlash against Muggles and "Muggle-lovers" among the wizarding community. The political advantages to Lord Voldemort here are obvious.

In other words, this is Voldemort's equivalent of Gleiwitz or the Reichstag Fire.

Edit: And yeah, this sort of manipulation is smarter than Voldemort's style... on the other hand, Lucius is fairly good at this sort of thing. Maybe he finally got Voldemort to actually read the suggestion box.

Hmm...you make a good point with the backlash not only against Muggles, but "Muggle-lovers" as well. Also, while it certainly isn't the purpose of the Dementors' presence, them 'preventing' a Muggle attack would be a huge coup for Fudge, particularly now, when the Ministry needs the good press the most. It'd also give him the momentum to shut Dumbledore's attempts at removingt he hateful things down and go "Sorry, Dumbledore, but the Dementors stay. STFU."

Edit: And you also make a good thought about this being Lucius' type of deal; not only is it head-and-shoulders above whatever clever move Voldemort might make, it also could help him, not only by promoting his anti-Muggle views, give him a huge amount of leeway with his inevitable asshat-ery of "I told you so", and preserves the current Ministry power base...which he practically owns.

I wonder...perhaps Wormtail's 'Master' isn't Tom, like we all assume, but Lucius Malfoy. Certainly would explain the level of cunning in this plan...not to mention the intelligence of sending Wormtail into an IRA-type pub; if it were Voldemort, it'd be the epitome of foolish--should the Irish not trust him and kill him, then Tom's back to square one: no followers, no assistants, nothing but a lonely forest in Albania; if it were Lucius, though...if he succeeds, great--if not, he's used a disposable man who wouldn't be missed among the Wizarding World (and also rids the Ministry of a huge embarrassment). All that sort of thinking seems in line with Lucius and his mental talents...

Anyone else wonder sometimes why HE wasn't the Dark Lord?

[MrRigger2]

I think the only reason he wasn't a Dark Lord was because he didn't have the raw power for it. At least, that would be the in universe reason for it. From a writing standpoint, Voldemort was the evil that was lurking out there, waiting and plotting to be resurrected. Lucius was the evil that we could see and touch (metaphorically speaking). Two different types, for two different purposes.

MrRigger

[SquirrelyRequiem]

Lucius always seemed like a more dangerous opponent to me. I mean, yes, you have this power hungry madman who is willing to (and probably succeeded on occasions previous to Harry) kill babies. That's a pretty crazy and powerful evil. But that's the catch, he is, for all intents and purposes, a rabid animal that is a danger to everyone, including itself.

Lucius however, Lucius is dangerous because even though he lacks Voldermort's power, he has skill. He strikes me as the type of person who makes sure he's prepared for something and, when he lacks power, he has the skill to get around it.

Essentially, when confronted with a mountain:

Voldermort simply -removes- the mountain, Lucius either walks over/around it or digs (metaphorically, I think he's too comfortable in his posh life to bother picking up a shovel) through it.

[Chuckg]

I can think of another reason (in addition to his lack of overwhelming raw power) as to why Lucius Malfoy wasn't a Dark Lord.

Not enough additional profit to be worth the additional risk. Lucius doesn't really need to overthrow the established power structure, he's making out very well on the current power structure.

Now, serving the Dark Lord, that's entirely a different equation: after all, one wants to be on the winning side. And if it turns out you're backing a loser? Distance yourself, claim the Imperius curse, and bribe the judges. (Which is canonically what he did, let us note.)

Of course, since the Dark Mark allows Voldemort to summon and/or harm any of his marked servants at any time, without them being able to defend against it, once Lucius made the decision to go Death Eater he was kinda stuck with it. If he hadn't been, I like to think he'd have decided to start looking for the exit about a week after Narcissa did. Not that I give Lucius Malfoy any credit for a crisis of conscience, but I give him an enormous amount of credit re: self-preservation instincts. :)

[Wraith422]

Essentially, when confronted with a mountain:

Voldermort simply -removes- the mountain, Lucius either walks over/around it or digs (metaphorically, I think he's too comfortable in his posh life to bother picking up a shovel) through it.

Either that, or he intimates to Fudge that the mountain must go and then lets the Ministry do the work for him.

Thinking of the idea I had (Lord Voldemort sitting opposite Lord Sidious at a game of domination [Risk, perhaps?] and Sidious trouncing the prat) I think that Lucius has the cunning, intellect and capital (financial and political) to play at the same level as the Emperor, if perhaps not the sheer awesome power as Tom and Palpatine.

Although I'm not sure about all this talk of him not being powerful. I mean, Jo never really specified how powerful he (or, really, any other Death Eater) was. And thinking about Tom's inner circle of Death Eaters, they aren't just the most loyal, or the most wealthy--they're the most powerful wizards under his command. And Lucius was pretty far up there. Matter of fact, I think only Severus Snape and Bellatrix Lestrange would top him out in both power and loyalty.

Granted, he probably doesn't have the power that Voldemort wields, but that might have something to do with the fact that while Tom saw the Laws of Magic and decided to break them (with the result of looking "like something that escaped from one of Snape’s preserving jars”) Lucius probably looked at the Laws of Magic and thought, "Alright. Now, how can I make these work to my advantage? And if possible, can I make them do it without my lifting a finger?"

[viridian]

Since it's Christmas and all...

For the raised eyebrow crowd... Do you feel that Tom is being more clever and less arrogant in this timeline?

Can anyone think of reasons why?

Or why Lucius might be a bit more desperate and less complacent than he was in the (pre-resurrection) timeline?

Ripples upon ripples...

[Ironwolf]

Since it's Christmas and all...

For the raised eyebrow crowd... Do you feel that Tom is being more clever and less arrogant in this timeline?

Can anyone think of reasons why?

Or why Lucius might be a bit more desperate and less complacent than he was in the (pre-resurrection) timeline?

Ripples upon ripples...

As for the first, because of that comment that Harry made before he totally pwned him for the Stone.

As for the second, because he had to spend a lot of capital, both monetary and political, just to stay out of jail from that major Dark Artifact bust in the Second Year.

[Greybane]

Since it's Christmas and all...

For the raised eyebrow crowd... Do you feel that Tom is being more clever and less arrogant in this timeline?

Can anyone think of reasons why?

Or why Lucius might be a bit more desperate and less complacent than he was in the (pre-resurrection) timeline?

Ripples upon ripples...

If this ends up like the Orochimaru situation like that in Time and Again I will want to have why Moldy Voldy was able to get into Harrys head so early, or why he also obtained future knowlege.

[serbii]

Harry is both competent and involved, if not aggressively so, in this timeline. Lucius would hear from his son that Harry not only has a backbone but is quite intelligent and probably dangerous. His moves against Wizarding society, and the laws and prejudices that made it so easy for Voldemort to take power the first time have showed that he's not afraid to do something about it. Finally he managed to get Snape fired, someone who Dumbledore has trusted for over a decade, even before he became a teenager. Frankly Harry Potter is a threat, rather than a little kid this time around.

Or you're pulling a Time and Again (when is that going to update anyway >_>) and Morty came back with Harry.

[Ninja'ed by Grey]

[viridian]

Time and Again was pretty heavily foreshadowed... if you remembered that scene from the future.

Also... if Voldemort knew The Truth - there is a LOT more he could/would be doing. Even more so with Lucius. Just leaking that Harry has foreknowledge to Fudge would neatly remove Harry from the equation for a good while.

[serbii]

Yeah, I only really skimmed T&A when I started reading it. So Orochi came back and I was like . Then I read it again and it's more of a "Durr, how'd you miss it?"
I have kept an eye out for Voldemort coming back too, but my current thinking is a pretty secure No. I agree (with the author :P), he's not acting very smart if he did.

Unlike Time and Again, Harry changed have had a big effect. While Naruto tried to change things at critical points, basically Kill Orochimaru in the forest and Don't let Sasuke leave.
Harry has been much more proactive about nipping the war in the bud, and thus the differences between the timelines are now quite large, worries about the inevitability of Fate non-withstanding. The wizarding world is quite small and Harry probably has more influence than he realises, especially in his manipulations of Dumbledore and the ministry, both for good and ill.

[viridian]

Unlike Time and Again, Harry changed have had a big effect. While Naruto tried to change things at critical points, basically Kill Orochimaru in the forest and Don't let Sasuke leave.
Harry has been much more proactive about nipping the war in the bud, and thus the differences between the timelines are now quite large, worries about the inevitability of Fate non-withstanding. The wizarding world is quite small and Harry probably has more influence than he realises, especially in his manipulations of Dumbledore and the ministry, both for good and ill.

I guess Vernon really did beat some sense into the boy...?